Closing spread
CHI -2.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.046
- 44.8%Success rate40.3%
- +0.157EPA / dropback-0.039
- -0.049EPA / rush-0.054
- 9.5%Explosive rate9.4%
- +2.07CPOE-3.50
- 45.7%Third-down rate37.7%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate50.6%
- 1.91Points / drive1.80
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. CHI are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 27/49 | 354 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 11/26 | 144 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 19 | 123 | 6.5 | 2 |
| Cedric Benson | 24 | 60 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Rashied Davis | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.92