Closing spread
CHI -2.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.046
- 44.8%Success rate40.3%
- +0.157EPA / dropback-0.039
- -0.049EPA / rush-0.054
- 9.5%Explosive rate9.4%
- +2.07CPOE-3.50
- 45.7%Third-down rate37.7%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate50.6%
- 1.91Points / drive1.80
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. CHI are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 44 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 12:09 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 11:10 | 5 | -5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 8:06 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 7:12 | 4 | 22 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 5:25 | 10 | 35 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NO | Q1 0:41 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q1 0:33 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| NO | Q2 13:40 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 0–6 |
| CHI | Q2 12:17 | 7 | 43 | Field goal | 0–9 |
| NO | Q2 8:52 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–9 |
| CHI | Q2 5:51 | 8 | 69 | Touchdown | 0–16 |
| NO | Q2 1:56 | 8 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–16 |
| CHI | Q2 0:46 | 2 | 4 | End of half | 7–16 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 7–16 |
| NO | Q3 13:13 | 2 | 93 | Touchdown | 14–16 |
| CHI | Q3 12:20 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 14–16 |
| NO | Q3 11:25 | 10 | 53 | Missed field goal | 14–16 |
| CHI | Q3 6:57 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–16 |
| NO | Q3 5:37 | 2 | 0 | Safety | 14–18 |
| CHI | Q3 5:27 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 14–18 |
| NO | Q3 3:58 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 14–18 |
| CHI | Q3 1:47 | 5 | 85 | Touchdown | 14–25 |
| NO | Q4 14:23 | 2 | -2 | Turnover | 14–25 |
| CHI | Q4 13:41 | 5 | 21 | Touchdown | 14–32 |
| NO | Q4 11:37 | 2 | 5 | Turnover | 14–32 |
| CHI | Q4 11:06 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–32 |
| NO | Q4 8:52 | 7 | 32 | Turnover on downs | 14–32 |
| CHI | Q4 7:21 | 5 | 35 | Touchdown | 14–39 |
| NO | Q4 4:19 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 14–39 |
| CHI | Q4 3:24 | 4 | 10 | End of half | 14–39 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 27/49 | 354 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 11/26 | 144 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 19 | 123 | 6.5 | 2 |
| Cedric Benson | 24 | 60 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Rashied Davis | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.92