Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
34.5
Model margin
+6.5est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play-0.033
- 37.3%Success rate43.2%
- -0.138EPA / dropback-0.029
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.037
- 7.5%Explosive rate10.4%
- -3.93CPOE-0.23
- 36.4%Third-down rate35.8%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate68.8%
- 1.07Points / drive1.51
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. MIN are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 10:42 | 7 | 29 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 7:43 | 5 | 26 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 4:32 | 8 | 42 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 0:27 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q2 14:01 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q2 12:35 | 14 | 76 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q2 3:58 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q2 0:58 | 2 | 3 | End of half | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q3 13:12 | 9 | 42 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q3 9:02 | 6 | 10 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q3 6:03 | 9 | 60 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| ATL | Q3 1:46 | 12 | 57 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| MIN | Q4 9:23 | 4 | 80 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| ATL | Q4 7:19 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 3–17 |
| MIN | Q4 6:27 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 3–23 |
| ATL | Q4 2:48 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 3–24 |
| ATL | Q4 2:37 | 12 | 62 | End of half | 3–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 23/32 | 199 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 22 | 55 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alge Crumpler | 4 | 1 | 40 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 13/23 | 163 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 19 | 103 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Troy Williamson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.2%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.95
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.51