2007 · Week 1

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Joey Harrington

3·24

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Tarvaris Jackson

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

MIN -3

Total

34.5

Model margin

+6.5est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapVikings
  • -0.148EPA / play-0.033
  • 37.3%Success rate43.2%
  • -0.138EPA / dropback-0.029
  • -0.167EPA / rush-0.037
  • 7.5%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -3.93CPOE-0.23
  • 36.4%Third-down rate35.8%
  • 48.0%Red-zone TD rate68.8%
  • 1.07Points / drive1.51
  • 2.4%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 44.7 points. MIN are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2ATL @ MIN22–6ATL
2024 · W14ATL @ MIN21–42MIN
2023 · W9MIN @ ATL31–28MIN
2020 · W6ATL @ MIN40–23ATL
2019 · W1ATL @ MIN12–28MIN
2017 · W13MIN @ ATL14–9MIN
2015 · W12MIN @ ATL20–10MIN
2014 · W4ATL @ MIN28–41MIN

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joey Harrington23/3219902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Warrick Dunn22552.50
Jerious Norwood5336.60
Joey Harrington188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alge Crumpler41400

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tarvaris Jackson13/2316311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson191035.40
Chester Taylor3186.00
Tarvaris Jackson2105.00
Troy Williamson133.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.2%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.2%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.95
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.51