Closing spread
CIN -2.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+5.9est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.108EPA / play+0.024
- 40.5%Success rate46.0%
- -0.090EPA / dropback+0.100
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.091
- 6.5%Explosive rate7.9%
- +1.46CPOE+5.31
- 37.9%Third-down rate45.6%
- 50.1%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 1.35Points / drive1.86
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. CIN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 20/34 | 203 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Boller | 2/6 | 19 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 19 | 77 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Musa Smith | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 20/32 | 194 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 18 | 50 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.6%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.74
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.58
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.88