Closing spread
HOU -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.132EPA / play-0.015
- 37.8%Success rate45.4%
- -0.112EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.052
- 5.9%Explosive rate7.5%
- -0.79CPOE+3.67
- 34.0%Third-down rate44.5%
- 55.6%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 0.94Points / drive1.85
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. HOU are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 12:54 | 14 | 76 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 5:49 | 9 | 56 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 0:59 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q2 13:42 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q2 11:27 | 7 | 26 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| KC | Q2 7:33 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–9 |
| HOU | Q2 6:13 | 1 | 77 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| KC | Q2 6:01 | 8 | 27 | Punt | 0–10 |
| HOU | Q2 1:51 | 4 | -3 | Punt | 0–10 |
| KC | Q2 0:31 | 2 | 12 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| HOU | Q2 0:14 | 3 | 22 | End of half | 0–10 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -1 | Opp touchdown | 0–17 |
| KC | Q3 14:01 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 0–17 |
| HOU | Q3 11:16 | 9 | 45 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| KC | Q3 6:56 | 10 | 63 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| HOU | Q3 0:26 | 14 | 65 | Field goal | 3–20 |
| KC | Q4 5:00 | 7 | 28 | Turnover | 3–20 |
| HOU | Q4 3:13 | 4 | 12 | End of half | 3–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 22/33 | 168 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 10 | 43 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Damon Huard | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 16/22 | 225 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 16 | 73 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 13 | 33 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.25
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.31