Closing spread
PIT -4.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.055EPA / play-0.013
- 41.8%Success rate42.4%
- +0.197EPA / dropback+0.032
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.076
- 9.2%Explosive rate10.4%
- +5.79CPOE-2.23
- 47.9%Third-down rate42.7%
- 63.2%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 2.10Points / drive1.84
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 12/23 | 161 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 27 | 109 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 8 | 43 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 1 | 37 | 37.0 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Carey Davis | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 13/28 | 184 | 1 | 1 |
| Charlie Frye | 4/10 | 34 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Frye | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.32