Closing spread
JAX -7.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play+0.108
- 42.4%Success rate44.1%
- -0.003EPA / dropback+0.191
- -0.139EPA / rush+0.015
- 7.0%Explosive rate10.4%
- +1.31CPOE+2.15
- 41.4%Third-down rate47.2%
- 48.8%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 1.43Points / drive2.25
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 12:47 | 4 | 31 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 10:38 | 12 | 62 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| JAX | Q1 4:03 | 2 | 46 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| TEN | Q1 3:24 | 11 | 79 | Turnover on downs | 3–7 |
| JAX | Q2 11:24 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 3–7 |
| TEN | Q2 8:42 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| JAX | Q2 7:48 | 8 | 21 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| TEN | Q2 4:19 | 8 | 55 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| JAX | Q2 0:43 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 6–10 |
| TEN | Q2 0:08 | 1 | -4 | End of half | 6–10 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 14 | 69 | Turnover on downs | 6–10 |
| TEN | Q3 7:33 | 13 | 59 | Touchdown | 13–10 |
| JAX | Q3 0:59 | 9 | 72 | Turnover | 13–10 |
| TEN | Q4 11:57 | 7 | 37 | Punt | 13–10 |
| JAX | Q4 8:16 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 13–10 |
| TEN | Q4 7:46 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 13–10 |
| JAX | Q4 4:18 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 13–10 |
| TEN | Q4 2:46 | 5 | 28 | End of half | 13–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 11/18 | 78 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 19 | 175 | 9.2 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 18 | 66 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 11 | 22 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Brandon Jones | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 17/30 | 204 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.3%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.35