Closing spread
PIT -10
Total
39.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play+0.055
- 38.9%Success rate41.8%
- -0.137EPA / dropback+0.197
- -0.112EPA / rush-0.100
- 7.6%Explosive rate9.2%
- -1.62CPOE+5.79
- 33.2%Third-down rate47.9%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate63.2%
- 1.13Points / drive2.10
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–6 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38 points. PIT are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 15/25 | 154 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 18 | 64 | 3.6 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 21/34 | 242 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 23 | 126 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Najeh Davenport | 6 | 46 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Carey Davis | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.57
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.41