Closing spread
PIT -10
Total
39.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play+0.055
- 38.9%Success rate41.8%
- -0.137EPA / dropback+0.197
- -0.112EPA / rush-0.100
- 7.6%Explosive rate9.2%
- -1.62CPOE+5.79
- 33.2%Third-down rate47.9%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate63.2%
- 1.13Points / drive2.10
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–6 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38 points. PIT are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 58 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q1 7:59 | 5 | 20 | Turnover on downs | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q1 5:20 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q1 5:07 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q1 2:50 | 14 | 68 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| BUF | Q2 10:02 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–6 |
| PIT | Q2 8:18 | 9 | 56 | Field goal | 0–9 |
| BUF | Q2 3:08 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 0–9 |
| PIT | Q2 1:38 | 7 | 57 | Field goal | 0–12 |
| BUF | Q2 0:15 | 1 | 8 | End of half | 0–12 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 23 | Field goal | 3–12 |
| PIT | Q3 9:55 | 9 | 62 | Touchdown | 3–19 |
| BUF | Q3 4:40 | 11 | 55 | Turnover on downs | 3–19 |
| PIT | Q4 14:48 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 3–19 |
| BUF | Q4 12:02 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 3–19 |
| PIT | Q4 9:13 | 4 | 51 | Touchdown | 3–26 |
| BUF | Q4 7:13 | 11 | 75 | Turnover on downs | 3–26 |
| PIT | Q4 3:51 | 5 | 46 | End of half | 3–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 15/25 | 154 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 18 | 64 | 3.6 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 21/34 | 242 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 23 | 126 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Najeh Davenport | 6 | 46 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Carey Davis | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.57
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.41