Closing spread
CIN -7
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
4.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.024EPA / play-0.013
- 46.0%Success rate42.4%
- +0.100EPA / dropback+0.032
- -0.091EPA / rush-0.076
- 7.9%Explosive rate10.4%
- +5.31CPOE-2.23
- 45.6%Third-down rate42.7%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.86Points / drive1.84
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CLE | Q1 10:32 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q1 9:32 | 3 | -6 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| CLE | Q1 7:57 | 6 | 15 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| CIN | Q1 4:58 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CLE | Q1 3:29 | 8 | 59 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| CIN | Q1 0:05 | 2 | 34 | Turnover | 7–6 |
| CLE | Q2 14:36 | 7 | 49 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| CIN | Q2 10:56 | 7 | 62 | Touchdown | 14–13 |
| CLE | Q2 7:33 | 3 | 11 | Touchdown | 14–20 |
| CIN | Q2 6:32 | 8 | 63 | Touchdown | 21–20 |
| CLE | Q2 3:06 | 5 | 88 | Touchdown | 21–27 |
| CIN | Q2 1:06 | 4 | 38 | End of half | 21–27 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 21–27 |
| CIN | Q3 14:54 | 4 | 23 | Field goal | 24–27 |
| CLE | Q3 12:09 | 8 | 78 | Touchdown | 24–34 |
| CIN | Q3 8:17 | 4 | 34 | Touchdown | 31–34 |
| CLE | Q3 6:11 | 1 | 66 | Touchdown | 31–41 |
| CIN | Q3 5:54 | 9 | 68 | Touchdown | 38–41 |
| CLE | Q3 0:49 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 38–41 |
| CIN | Q4 14:17 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 38–41 |
| CLE | Q4 13:07 | 5 | 92 | Touchdown | 38–48 |
| CIN | Q4 9:59 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 38–48 |
| CLE | Q4 8:29 | 5 | 69 | Field goal | 38–51 |
| CIN | Q4 5:44 | 11 | 64 | Touchdown | 45–51 |
| CLE | Q4 3:39 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 45–51 |
| CIN | Q4 1:03 | 6 | 41 | Turnover | 45–51 |
| CLE | Q4 0:20 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 45–51 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 33/50 | 401 | 6 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 23 | 118 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tab Perry | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 20/33 | 328 | 5 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 28 | 215 | 7.7 | 1 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.74
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.90