Closing spread
CIN -7
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
4.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.024EPA / play-0.013
- 46.0%Success rate42.4%
- +0.100EPA / dropback+0.032
- -0.091EPA / rush-0.076
- 7.9%Explosive rate10.4%
- +5.31CPOE-2.23
- 45.6%Third-down rate42.7%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.86Points / drive1.84
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 33/50 | 401 | 6 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 23 | 118 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tab Perry | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 20/33 | 328 | 5 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 28 | 215 | 7.7 | 1 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.74
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.90