Closing spread
IND -7
Total
45
Model margin
-0.3est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.139EPA / play-0.066
- 48.8%Success rate42.4%
- +0.222EPA / dropback-0.003
- +0.025EPA / rush-0.139
- 9.7%Explosive rate7.0%
- +1.87CPOE+1.31
- 49.3%Third-down rate41.4%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate48.8%
- 2.49Points / drive1.43
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–16 since 1999
Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 21-29 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 33 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 10:34 | 5 | 55 | Touchdown | 6–0 |
| TEN | Q1 8:44 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 6–0 |
| IND | Q1 5:49 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 6–0 |
| TEN | Q1 3:11 | 4 | 55 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| IND | Q1 1:03 | 10 | 81 | Touchdown | 13–3 |
| TEN | Q2 10:56 | 11 | 53 | Field goal | 13–6 |
| IND | Q2 4:23 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–6 |
| TEN | Q2 2:31 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 13–6 |
| IND | Q2 1:12 | 6 | 79 | Field goal | 16–6 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 49 | Field goal | 19–6 |
| TEN | Q3 9:41 | 6 | 38 | Punt | 19–6 |
| IND | Q3 7:05 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 19–6 |
| TEN | Q3 6:20 | 3 | 15 | Touchdown | 19–13 |
| IND | Q3 4:58 | 11 | 55 | Field goal | 22–13 |
| TEN | Q4 15:00 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 22–13 |
| IND | Q4 14:02 | 3 | 6 | Missed field goal | 22–13 |
| TEN | Q4 12:26 | 12 | 50 | Touchdown | 22–20 |
| IND | Q4 6:02 | 9 | 33 | Punt | 22–20 |
| TEN | Q4 1:37 | 8 | 18 | Turnover | 22–20 |
| IND | Q4 0:00 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 22–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 28/42 | 312 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 20 | 81 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Kenton Keith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 17/27 | 184 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LenDale White | 15 | 64 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Vince Young | 5 | 53 | 10.6 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Chris Davis | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
4.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.2%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.65
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-0.32