Closing spread
DET -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play-0.065
- 43.2%Success rate42.9%
- -0.029EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.037EPA / rush-0.134
- 10.4%Explosive rate8.6%
- -0.23CPOE+1.53
- 35.8%Third-down rate32.3%
- 68.8%Red-zone TD rate54.4%
- 1.51Points / drive1.58
- 3.0%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DET are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 17/33 | 166 | 0 | 4 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 3/4 | 26 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 20 | 66 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 6 | 50 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Bobby Wade | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 22/33 | 245 | 1 | 1 |
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 13/23 | 148 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Calhoun | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Tatum Bell | 9 | 14 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 2 | -9 | -4.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.9%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.82