Closing spread
DET -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play-0.065
- 43.2%Success rate42.9%
- -0.029EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.037EPA / rush-0.134
- 10.4%Explosive rate8.6%
- -0.23CPOE+1.53
- 35.8%Third-down rate32.3%
- 68.8%Red-zone TD rate54.4%
- 1.51Points / drive1.58
- 3.0%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. DET are 26-25-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 54 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 9:22 | 11 | 70 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 6:35 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 4:08 | 10 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 0:22 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DET | Q2 14:48 | 6 | 56 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q2 11:09 | 6 | 43 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| DET | Q2 8:25 | 7 | 31 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIN | Q2 5:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–7 |
| DET | Q2 3:30 | 7 | 50 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| MIN | Q2 1:06 | 8 | 49 | End of half | 7–10 |
| DET | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| MIN | Q3 13:42 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| DET | Q3 13:29 | 8 | 16 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| MIN | Q3 10:06 | 7 | 12 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| DET | Q3 5:57 | 2 | -3 | Opp touchdown | 17–17 |
| DET | Q3 5:08 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 17–17 |
| DET | Q3 5:08 | 1 | 8 | Turnover | 17–17 |
| DET | Q3 4:32 | 7 | 43 | Turnover | 17–17 |
| MIN | Q3 1:11 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 17–17 |
| DET | Q4 12:49 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 17–17 |
| MIN | Q4 11:15 | 5 | 21 | Turnover | 17–17 |
| DET | Q4 8:22 | 5 | 41 | Turnover | 17–17 |
| MIN | Q4 7:00 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 17–17 |
| DET | Q4 3:09 | 9 | 60 | Missed field goal | 17–17 |
| MIN | Q4 0:45 | 3 | 28 | Missed field goal | 17–17 |
| DET | Q4 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–17 |
| MIN | OT | 8 | 35 | Turnover | 17–17 |
| DET | OT | 4 | 31 | Field goal | 17–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 17/33 | 166 | 0 | 4 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 3/4 | 26 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 20 | 66 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 6 | 50 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Bobby Wade | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 22/33 | 245 | 1 | 1 |
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 13/23 | 148 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Calhoun | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Tatum Bell | 9 | 14 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 2 | -9 | -4.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.9%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.82