2007 · Week 2 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
NO -5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.004
- 47.6%Success rate41.9%
- +0.072EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.101EPA / rush-0.100
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.8%
- +4.63CPOE+2.62
- 46.0%Third-down rate39.3%
- 69.1%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 1.69Points / drive1.64
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 13:59 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 11:38 | 3 | 13 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 10:01 | 8 | 57 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 5:25 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 2:19 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 1:21 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TB | Q2 14:46 | 3 | 68 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| NO | Q2 13:09 | 10 | 53 | Missed field goal | 0–14 |
| TB | Q2 6:53 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–14 |
| NO | Q2 5:55 | 9 | 34 | Punt | 0–14 |
| TB | Q2 1:41 | 2 | 65 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| NO | Q2 1:05 | 4 | -4 | Turnover on downs | 0–21 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 0–21 |
| NO | Q3 11:31 | 8 | 43 | Turnover | 0–21 |
| TB | Q3 7:05 | 5 | 53 | Touchdown | 0–28 |
| NO | Q3 4:26 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–28 |
| TB | Q3 0:49 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 7–28 |
| NO | Q4 13:12 | 8 | 12 | Turnover on downs | 7–28 |
| TB | Q4 11:41 | 7 | 25 | Field goal | 7–31 |
| NO | Q4 7:30 | 11 | 78 | Touchdown | 14–31 |
| TB | Q4 2:50 | 3 | 11 | End of half | 14–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 26/44 | 260 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Johnson | 3 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 10/16 | 243 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 24 | 61 | 2.5 | 2 |
| Michael Pittman | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.67%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.8%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.25