Closing spread
DEN -10
Total
37
Model margin
+2.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 12:33 | 5 | 33 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 10:13 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 8:50 | 8 | 34 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 5:02 | 12 | 31 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q2 14:53 | 2 | 9 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LV | Q2 13:57 | 6 | 28 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| DEN | Q2 10:26 | 6 | 65 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| LV | Q2 7:34 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–14 |
| DEN | Q2 5:36 | 9 | 67 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| LV | Q2 0:18 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 3–17 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 68 | Missed field goal | 3–17 |
| LV | Q3 8:27 | 7 | 65 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| DEN | Q3 5:19 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 10–17 |
| LV | Q3 5:19 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 10–17 |
| DEN | Q3 0:36 | 4 | -4 | Safety | 12–17 |
| LV | Q4 14:15 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 12–17 |
| DEN | Q4 10:41 | 5 | 38 | Opp touchdown | 20–17 |
| DEN | Q4 8:55 | 14 | 73 | Field goal | 20–20 |
| LV | Q4 2:18 | 7 | 30 | Turnover | 20–20 |
| DEN | Q4 0:14 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–20 |
| DEN | OT | 3 | 8 | Punt | 20–20 |
| LV | OT | 4 | 39 | Missed field goal | 20–20 |
| DEN | OT | 8 | 52 | Field goal | 20–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 23/33 | 269 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 26 | 128 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Selvin Young | 3 | 43 | 14.3 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Cecil Sapp | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Javon Walker | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.28
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.