Closing spread
CAR -4
Total
38
Model margin
-2.4est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play-0.148
- 38.9%Success rate37.3%
- -0.070EPA / dropback-0.138
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.167
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.5%
- -5.47CPOE-3.93
- 36.1%Third-down rate36.4%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
- 1.27Points / drive1.07
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–22 since 1999
CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. ATL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 13:21 | 5 | 45 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 10:26 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 8:28 | 13 | 73 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 2:46 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 0:56 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q2 14:18 | 7 | 46 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| ATL | Q2 10:53 | 4 | 80 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| CAR | Q2 9:19 | 10 | 65 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| ATL | Q2 4:32 | 12 | 83 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| CAR | Q2 0:11 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–10 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 10–10 |
| CAR | Q3 13:01 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–10 |
| ATL | Q3 11:36 | 5 | 52 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| CAR | Q3 9:09 | 7 | 13 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| ATL | Q3 7:13 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–17 |
| CAR | Q3 5:31 | 9 | 71 | Touchdown | 24–17 |
| ATL | Q3 0:47 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 24–17 |
| CAR | Q4 13:25 | 9 | 57 | Field goal | 27–17 |
| ATL | Q4 7:36 | 10 | 62 | Field goal | 27–20 |
| CAR | Q4 3:03 | 5 | 38 | End of half | 27–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 10/18 | 109 | 2 | 0 |
| David Carr | 3/4 | 56 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 20 | 122 | 6.1 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| David Carr | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 31/44 | 361 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 11 | 55 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.04
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.92
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.40