Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.6 points. OAK are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CLE–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 33 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 10:02 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 8:20 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 6:11 | 10 | 84 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CLE | Q1 0:37 | 5 | 22 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| LV | Q2 13:35 | 6 | 4 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| CLE | Q2 11:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–6 |
| LV | Q2 8:48 | 8 | 93 | Touchdown | 0–13 |
| CLE | Q2 4:45 | 5 | 0 | Turnover | 0–13 |
| LV | Q2 3:42 | 3 | 2 | Field goal | 6–16 |
| CLE | Q2 2:05 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 7–16 |
| LV | Q2 1:53 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–16 |
| CLE | Q2 1:39 | 6 | 29 | Field goal | 10–16 |
| LV | Q2 0:11 | 1 | 1 | End of half | 10–16 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 10–16 |
| CLE | Q3 12:34 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–16 |
| LV | Q3 11:00 | 3 | 24 | Turnover | 10–16 |
| CLE | Q3 10:38 | 4 | 52 | Touchdown | 17–16 |
| LV | Q3 9:16 | 17 | 72 | Touchdown | 17–23 |
| CLE | Q3 0:10 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–23 |
| LV | Q4 14:09 | 10 | 60 | Field goal | 17–26 |
| CLE | Q4 8:11 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 24–26 |
| LV | Q4 3:33 | 6 | 35 | Punt | 24–26 |
| CLE | Q4 1:04 | 7 | 69 | Missed field goal | 24–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 18/37 | 248 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 15 | 56 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.22
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.