Closing spread
PHI -5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+5.7est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.065EPA / play+0.041
- 42.9%Success rate45.5%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.134EPA / rush+0.017
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.3%
- +1.53CPOE-0.87
- 32.3%Third-down rate43.4%
- 54.4%Red-zone TD rate49.7%
- 1.58Points / drive1.66
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 7–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 54.1 points. PHI are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 29/46 | 446 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bell | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brian Calhoun | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Kevin Jones | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Jon Kitna | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 21/26 | 381 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 14 | 110 | 7.9 | 2 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Thomas Tapeh | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Tony Hunt | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 1 |
| Kevin Kolb | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.1%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.70