Closing spread
PHI -5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+5.7est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.065EPA / play+0.041
- 42.9%Success rate45.5%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.134EPA / rush+0.017
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.3%
- +1.53CPOE-0.87
- 32.3%Third-down rate43.4%
- 54.4%Red-zone TD rate49.7%
- 1.58Points / drive1.66
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 7–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 54.1 points. PHI are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DET–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 13:58 | 4 | 56 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DET | Q1 11:59 | 5 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| PHI | Q1 9:07 | 10 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| DET | Q1 3:41 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–20 |
| PHI | Q1 3:13 | 1 | 68 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| DET | Q1 3:04 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–21 |
| PHI | Q1 1:47 | 7 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–28 |
| DET | Q2 12:45 | 3 | -12 | Punt | 7–34 |
| PHI | Q2 11:40 | 1 | 43 | Touchdown | 7–35 |
| DET | Q2 11:32 | 7 | 85 | Touchdown | 14–35 |
| PHI | Q2 8:45 | 5 | 69 | Turnover | 14–35 |
| DET | Q2 5:34 | 2 | 91 | Touchdown | 21–35 |
| PHI | Q2 5:01 | 6 | 88 | Touchdown | 21–42 |
| DET | Q2 1:49 | 8 | 52 | Turnover | 21–42 |
| PHI | Q2 0:33 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–42 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 21–42 |
| DET | Q3 12:46 | 7 | 38 | Missed field goal | 21–42 |
| PHI | Q3 8:35 | 12 | 59 | Touchdown | 21–49 |
| DET | Q3 2:24 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 21–49 |
| PHI | Q3 0:05 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 21–49 |
| DET | Q4 14:44 | 8 | 52 | Turnover | 21–49 |
| PHI | Q4 10:28 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 21–49 |
| DET | Q4 8:49 | 2 | -11 | Turnover | 21–49 |
| PHI | Q4 8:13 | 3 | 1 | Touchdown | 21–56 |
| DET | Q4 7:27 | 11 | 49 | Turnover on downs | 21–56 |
| PHI | Q4 3:00 | 3 | -13 | Turnover | 21–56 |
| DET | Q4 2:12 | 4 | -3 | Turnover on downs | 21–56 |
| PHI | Q4 1:51 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–56 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 29/46 | 446 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bell | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brian Calhoun | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Kevin Jones | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Jon Kitna | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 21/26 | 381 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 14 | 110 | 7.9 | 2 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Thomas Tapeh | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Tony Hunt | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 1 |
| Kevin Kolb | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.1%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.70