Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
36.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.078EPA / play-0.075
- 40.4%Success rate41.4%
- -0.084EPA / dropback-0.065
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.088
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.7%
- -3.12CPOE+0.41
- 37.0%Third-down rate37.1%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate41.2%
- 1.36Points / drive1.32
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 29–26 since 1999
MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. NYJ are 28-24-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 36 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 9:04 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 8:10 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 6:41 | 12 | 44 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q1 1:02 | 8 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| NYJ | Q2 13:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| MIA | Q2 12:47 | 9 | 48 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 7:19 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 10–14 |
| MIA | Q2 5:05 | 9 | 63 | Field goal | 13–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 1:36 | 8 | 57 | Touchdown | 13–21 |
| MIA | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–21 |
| NYJ | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 57 | Field goal | 13–24 |
| MIA | Q3 7:57 | 6 | 31 | Turnover | 13–24 |
| NYJ | Q3 5:27 | 15 | 79 | Touchdown | 13–31 |
| MIA | Q4 12:51 | 8 | 76 | Touchdown | 21–31 |
| NYJ | Q4 8:56 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 21–31 |
| NYJ | Q4 8:47 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 21–31 |
| MIA | Q4 3:34 | 10 | 90 | Touchdown | 28–31 |
| NYJ | Q4 1:15 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 28–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 23/36 | 318 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 23 | 112 | 4.9 | 2 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 15/22 | 124 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 25 | 110 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.75