2007 · Week 3
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 86°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
TB -3.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 10:40 | 8 | 44 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 5:36 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 2:32 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 0:56 | 5 | 24 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| TB | Q2 13:20 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q2 10:05 | 16 | 60 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| TB | Q2 2:00 | 5 | 26 | Field goal | 0–0 |
| TB | Q2 0:53 | 1 | 0 | Field goal | 0–0 |
| TB | Q2 0:50 | 4 | 39 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LA | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–3 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 48 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| LA | Q3 10:41 | 9 | 41 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| TB | Q3 5:42 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LA | Q3 4:00 | 7 | 29 | Missed field goal | 0–10 |
| TB | Q4 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| LA | Q4 14:51 | 6 | 26 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| TB | Q4 11:31 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| LA | Q4 7:56 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 3–17 |
| TB | Q4 6:36 | 3 | 40 | Touchdown | 3–24 |
| LA | Q4 5:00 | 3 | 14 | Turnover | 3–24 |
| TB | Q4 4:01 | 6 | 30 | End of half | 3–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 14/22 | 151 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnest Graham | 8 | 75 | 9.4 | 2 |
| Michael Pittman | 7 | 56 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.31
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.