2007 · Week 3
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 86°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
TB -3.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 14/22 | 151 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnest Graham | 8 | 75 | 9.4 | 2 |
| Michael Pittman | 7 | 56 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.31
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.