Closing spread
CHI -2.5
Total
46
Model margin
+1.0est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.128EPA / play-0.065
- 38.4%Success rate42.9%
- -0.087EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.190EPA / rush-0.134
- 6.6%Explosive rate8.6%
- -3.34CPOE+1.53
- 34.3%Third-down rate32.3%
- 49.0%Red-zone TD rate54.4%
- 1.34Points / drive1.58
- 3.0%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 34/52 | 286 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 15 | 50 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Garrett Wolfe | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 20/24 | 247 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bell | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Kevin Jones | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Shaun McDonald | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.8%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.56
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.01