Closing spread
CHI -2.5
Total
46
Model margin
+1.0est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.128EPA / play-0.065
- 38.4%Success rate42.9%
- -0.087EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.190EPA / rush-0.134
- 6.6%Explosive rate8.6%
- -3.34CPOE+1.53
- 34.3%Third-down rate32.3%
- 49.0%Red-zone TD rate54.4%
- 1.34Points / drive1.58
- 3.0%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 13:19 | 3 | 7 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 11:44 | 3 | -4 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q1 10:05 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DET | Q1 8:28 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q1 7:32 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DET | Q1 6:32 | 15 | 91 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q2 14:16 | 9 | 14 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DET | Q2 10:31 | 4 | 4 | Missed field goal | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q2 8:36 | 9 | 71 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| DET | Q2 4:16 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CHI | Q2 2:03 | 9 | 48 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| DET | Q2 0:29 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 7–3 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 7–3 |
| DET | Q3 12:55 | 1 | -3 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| CHI | Q3 12:45 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| DET | Q3 12:01 | 4 | 31 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CHI | Q3 9:17 | 8 | 35 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| DET | Q3 5:08 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–3 |
| CHI | Q3 3:39 | 5 | 22 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| DET | Q3 0:49 | 4 | 55 | Touchdown | 13–10 |
| CHI | Q4 14:56 | 4 | 13 | Opp touchdown | 19–17 |
| CHI | Q4 13:14 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 20–17 |
| DET | Q4 12:57 | 7 | 70 | Touchdown | 20–24 |
| CHI | Q4 10:06 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 20–24 |
| DET | Q4 8:48 | 9 | 57 | Touchdown | 20–30 |
| CHI | Q4 3:34 | 12 | 66 | Touchdown | 27–36 |
| DET | Q4 0:52 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 27–37 |
| CHI | Q4 0:45 | 4 | 11 | End of half | 27–37 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 34/52 | 286 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 15 | 50 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Garrett Wolfe | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 20/24 | 247 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bell | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Kevin Jones | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Shaun McDonald | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.8%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.56
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.01