Closing spread
NYJ -3.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play-0.125
- 41.4%Success rate38.9%
- -0.065EPA / dropback-0.137
- -0.088EPA / rush-0.112
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.6%
- +0.41CPOE-1.62
- 37.1%Third-down rate33.2%
- 41.2%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 1.32Points / drive1.13
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 11:41 | 8 | 27 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 5:27 | 7 | 51 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 1:46 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q2 13:54 | 12 | 60 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 6:39 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q2 2:32 | 3 | 29 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 1:45 | 9 | 71 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q3 13:04 | 10 | 61 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q3 6:44 | 8 | 82 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| BUF | Q3 2:13 | 11 | 70 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| NYJ | Q4 10:49 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| BUF | Q4 10:01 | 6 | 15 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| NYJ | Q4 6:56 | 12 | 74 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| BUF | Q4 3:02 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–17 |
| NYJ | Q4 1:43 | 8 | 35 | Turnover | 14–17 |
| BUF | Q4 0:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 32/39 | 290 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 12 | 35 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 22/28 | 234 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 23 | 79 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Anthony Thomas | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dwayne Wright | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.94
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.62