Closing spread
NYJ -3.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play-0.125
- 41.4%Success rate38.9%
- -0.065EPA / dropback-0.137
- -0.088EPA / rush-0.112
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.6%
- +0.41CPOE-1.62
- 37.1%Third-down rate33.2%
- 41.2%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 1.32Points / drive1.13
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 32/39 | 290 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 12 | 35 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 22/28 | 234 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 23 | 79 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Anthony Thomas | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dwayne Wright | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.94
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.62