Closing spread
MIA -3.5
Total
40
Model margin
+0.5est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 13–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. MIA are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 13:59 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 12:26 | 5 | 16 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 10:36 | 3 | -14 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 8:30 | 12 | 58 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| MIA | Q1 2:01 | 8 | 68 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LV | Q2 12:40 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 14–7 |
| MIA | Q2 10:05 | 8 | 74 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| LV | Q2 6:51 | 13 | 64 | Turnover on downs | 14–7 |
| MIA | Q2 0:23 | 1 | 5 | End of half | 14–7 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LV | Q3 12:34 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 14–7 |
| MIA | Q3 11:04 | 9 | 42 | Field goal | 14–10 |
| LV | Q3 6:10 | 5 | 61 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| MIA | Q3 4:00 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 21–10 |
| MIA | Q3 2:45 | 5 | 33 | Touchdown | 21–17 |
| LV | Q3 0:08 | 11 | 79 | Touchdown | 28–17 |
| MIA | Q4 7:58 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 28–17 |
| LV | Q4 6:17 | 9 | 82 | Touchdown | 35–17 |
| MIA | Q4 0:23 | 1 | 23 | End of half | 35–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 14/25 | 158 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 15 | 134 | 8.9 | 1 |
| Jesse Chatman | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.48
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.