2007 · Week 4 · Division
Final
Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
39
Model margin
-1.4est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play-0.088
- 41.9%Success rate38.9%
- +0.063EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.7%
- +2.62CPOE-5.47
- 39.3%Third-down rate36.1%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 1.64Points / drive1.27
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–24 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. CAR are 27-22 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q1 8:43 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–0 |
| TB | Q1 7:49 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q1 6:02 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 7–0 |
| TB | Q1 3:13 | 5 | 48 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| CAR | Q1 0:48 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–0 |
| TB | Q2 14:53 | 7 | 31 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| CAR | Q2 11:37 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 14–0 |
| TB | Q2 9:11 | 5 | 61 | Field goal | 17–0 |
| CAR | Q2 6:41 | 10 | 33 | Punt | 17–0 |
| TB | Q2 1:40 | 3 | 26 | End of half | 17–0 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 35 | Punt | 17–0 |
| TB | Q3 11:36 | 9 | 51 | Punt | 17–0 |
| CAR | Q3 7:14 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 17–0 |
| TB | Q3 6:04 | 8 | 26 | Turnover on downs | 17–0 |
| CAR | Q3 1:10 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–0 |
| TB | Q4 14:41 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 17–0 |
| CAR | Q4 12:40 | 3 | -5 | Turnover | 17–0 |
| TB | Q4 11:51 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 20–0 |
| CAR | Q4 10:21 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 20–0 |
| TB | Q4 9:29 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 20–0 |
| CAR | Q4 7:41 | 9 | 30 | Punt | 20–0 |
| TB | Q4 4:42 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 20–0 |
| CAR | Q4 2:55 | 13 | 80 | Touchdown | 20–7 |
| TB | Q4 0:23 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–7 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 15/25 | 176 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 15 | 90 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 17 | 48 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Cadillac Williams | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 1 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 19/41 | 155 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 15 | 64 | 4.3 | 0 |
| David Carr | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.4%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.65
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.27
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.36