2007 · Week 4 · Division
Final
Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
39
Model margin
-1.4est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play-0.088
- 41.9%Success rate38.9%
- +0.063EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.7%
- +2.62CPOE-5.47
- 39.3%Third-down rate36.1%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 1.64Points / drive1.27
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. CAR are 27-21 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 15/25 | 176 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 15 | 90 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 17 | 48 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Cadillac Williams | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 1 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 19/41 | 155 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 15 | 64 | 4.3 | 0 |
| David Carr | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.4%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.65
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.27
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.36