2007 · Week 5

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jon Kitna

3·34

Commanders

Washington

QB Jason Campbell

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

WAS -4

Total

44.5

Model margin

+5.5est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.065EPA / play-0.040
  • 42.9%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.199
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +1.53CPOE+2.48
  • 32.3%Third-down rate41.1%
  • 54.4%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
  • 1.58Points / drive1.59
  • 3.5%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. WAS are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10DET @ WAS44–22DET
2024 · playoffsWAS @ DET45–31WAS
2022 · W2WAS @ DET27–36DET
2020 · W10WAS @ DET27–30DET
2019 · W12DET @ WAS16–19WAS
2016 · W7WAS @ DET17–20DET
2013 · W3DET @ WAS27–20DET
2010 · W8WAS @ DET25–37DET

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna16/2910602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Jones11484.40
Tatum Bell4153.80
Jon Kitna430.80

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jason Campbell23/2924820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis18724.00
Mike Sellers5244.81
Ladell Betts8222.80
Rock Cartwright200.00
Jason Campbell200.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.7%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.38
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+5.50