Closing spread
JAX -1
Total
36
Model margin
-1.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.108EPA / play-0.132
- 44.1%Success rate37.8%
- +0.191EPA / dropback-0.112
- +0.015EPA / rush-0.167
- 10.4%Explosive rate5.9%
- +2.15CPOE-0.79
- 47.2%Third-down rate34.0%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate55.6%
- 2.25Points / drive0.94
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.2 points. KC are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 64 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 10:55 | 17 | 87 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| KC | Q2 15:00 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 3–0 |
| JAX | Q2 11:40 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| KC | Q2 8:36 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–0 |
| JAX | Q2 6:27 | 8 | 37 | Missed field goal | 10–0 |
| KC | Q2 2:21 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 10–0 |
| JAX | Q2 1:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–0 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 10–0 |
| KC | Q3 12:11 | 9 | 31 | Punt | 10–0 |
| JAX | Q3 7:32 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–0 |
| KC | Q3 5:36 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–0 |
| JAX | Q3 4:08 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–0 |
| KC | Q3 1:54 | 8 | 35 | Punt | 10–0 |
| JAX | Q4 13:29 | 9 | 81 | Touchdown | 17–0 |
| KC | Q4 8:26 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 17–0 |
| JAX | Q4 8:14 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–0 |
| KC | Q4 6:53 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 17–0 |
| JAX | Q4 6:08 | 10 | 39 | Turnover on downs | 17–0 |
| KC | Q4 1:54 | 10 | 70 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 20/27 | 218 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 9 | 82 | 9.1 | 1 |
| Fred Taylor | 16 | 51 | 3.2 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 19/30 | 196 | 0 | 1 |
| Brodie Croyle | 6/13 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 9 | 12 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.3%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-1.77