Closing spread
SD -1
Total
43
Model margin
+2.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-25-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 10:40 | 8 | 71 | Touchdown | 13–0 |
| DEN | Q1 6:26 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| DEN | Q1 6:15 | 6 | 61 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| LAC | Q1 3:20 | 12 | 83 | Field goal | 17–0 |
| DEN | Q2 11:23 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 17–0 |
| LAC | Q2 8:30 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 17–0 |
| DEN | Q2 6:28 | 10 | 55 | Field goal | 17–3 |
| LAC | Q2 1:15 | 4 | 62 | Field goal | 20–3 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 90 | Touchdown | 27–3 |
| DEN | Q3 9:20 | 6 | 46 | Turnover | 27–3 |
| LAC | Q3 6:16 | 10 | 79 | Touchdown | 34–3 |
| DEN | Q3 0:07 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 34–3 |
| LAC | Q4 13:32 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 34–3 |
| DEN | Q4 11:19 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 34–3 |
| LAC | Q4 10:26 | 2 | 86 | Touchdown | 41–3 |
| DEN | Q4 9:42 | 9 | 37 | Turnover on downs | 41–3 |
| LAC | Q4 5:55 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 41–3 |
| DEN | Q4 3:32 | 8 | 39 | Turnover on downs | 41–3 |
| LAC | Q4 1:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 41–3 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 23/36 | 232 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 16 | 65 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Selvin Young | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.28
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.