Closing spread
NO -9
Total
42.5
Model margin
+6.9est.
NO perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play+0.011
- 37.3%Success rate47.6%
- -0.138EPA / dropback+0.072
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.101
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.6%
- -3.93CPOE+4.63
- 36.4%Third-down rate46.0%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate69.1%
- 1.07Points / drive1.69
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 30-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 15/23 | 145 | 1 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 12/18 | 128 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerious Norwood | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 13 | 28 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 22/34 | 219 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 17 | 54 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.2%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.53
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+6.94