Closing spread
PIT -4
Total
38
Model margin
+1.7est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.055EPA / play-0.001
- 41.8%Success rate42.8%
- +0.197EPA / dropback+0.071
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.100
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.4%
- +5.79CPOE+1.55
- 47.9%Third-down rate40.0%
- 63.2%Red-zone TD rate49.6%
- 2.10Points / drive1.46
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–6 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DEN are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 24/35 | 290 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 21 | 93 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 22/29 | 248 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 17 | 51 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 41 | 13.7 | 0 |
| Cecil Sapp | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Selvin Young | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.88
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.69