2007 · Week 7

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

28·31

Broncos

Denver

QB Jay Cutler

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PIT -4

Total

38

Model margin

+1.7est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBroncos
  • +0.055EPA / play-0.001
  • 41.8%Success rate42.8%
  • +0.197EPA / dropback+0.071
  • -0.100EPA / rush-0.100
  • 9.2%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +5.79CPOE+1.55
  • 47.9%Third-down rate40.0%
  • 63.2%Red-zone TD rate49.6%
  • 2.10Points / drive1.46
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–6 since 1999

PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DEN are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2PIT @ DEN13–6PIT
2021 · W5DEN @ PIT19–27PIT
2020 · W2DEN @ PIT21–26PIT
2018 · W12PIT @ DEN17–24DEN
2015 · playoffsPIT @ DEN16–23DEN
2015 · W15DEN @ PIT27–34PIT
2012 · W1PIT @ DEN19–31DEN
2011 · playoffsPIT @ DEN23–29DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–DEN
PITQ1 15:00860Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 11:00969Touchdown7–7
PITQ1 6:1737Punt7–7
DENQ1 5:18626Punt7–7
PITQ1 2:4424Turnover7–7
DENQ1 1:53423Turnover7–7
PITQ2 14:52537Punt7–7
DENQ2 11:3835Punt7–7
PITQ2 10:08613Turnover7–7
DENQ2 7:16653Touchdown7–14
PITQ2 4:01422Opp touchdown7–21
PITQ2 2:31938Missed field goal7–21
DENQ3 15:00525Turnover7–21
PITQ3 12:21741Touchdown14–21
DENQ3 8:101379Touchdown14–28
PITQ4 15:001079Touchdown21–28
DENQ4 10:1030Punt21–28
PITQ4 7:471278Touchdown28–28
DENQ4 1:10744Field goal28–31

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger24/3529042

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willie Parker21934.40
Ben Roethlisberger3206.70
Najeh Davenport263.00

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler22/2924832

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Henry17513.00
Jay Cutler34113.70
Cecil Sapp133.00
Selvin Young210.50
Brandon Stokley1-6-6.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -44.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.35%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.6%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.88
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.69