Closing spread
HOU -2
Total
37.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play-0.015
- 42.4%Success rate45.4%
- -0.003EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.139EPA / rush-0.052
- 7.0%Explosive rate7.5%
- +1.31CPOE+3.67
- 41.4%Third-down rate44.5%
- 48.8%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 1.43Points / drive1.85
- 3.0%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 28-19-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 25/42 | 280 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LenDale White | 27 | 104 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Chris Henry | 11 | 57 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Roydell Williams | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sage Rosenfels | 22/35 | 290 | 4 | 3 |
| Matt Schaub | 5/9 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.07
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.25