Closing spread
HOU -2
Total
37.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play-0.015
- 42.4%Success rate45.4%
- -0.003EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.139EPA / rush-0.052
- 7.0%Explosive rate7.5%
- +1.31CPOE+3.67
- 41.4%Third-down rate44.5%
- 48.8%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 1.43Points / drive1.85
- 3.0%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 25–24 since 1999
HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. HOU are 29-19-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 35 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q1 12:30 | 2 | -1 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| TEN | Q1 11:45 | 3 | 9 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q1 10:50 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–6 |
| TEN | Q1 9:51 | 1 | -13 | Opp touchdown | 3–7 |
| TEN | Q1 9:43 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–7 |
| HOU | Q1 8:03 | 5 | 11 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| TEN | Q1 5:38 | 9 | 36 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| HOU | Q1 0:52 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 6–7 |
| TEN | Q2 14:00 | 4 | 45 | Field goal | 9–7 |
| HOU | Q2 11:46 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 9–7 |
| TEN | Q2 10:05 | 10 | 60 | Touchdown | 16–7 |
| HOU | Q2 5:36 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 16–7 |
| TEN | Q2 3:59 | 8 | 38 | Field goal | 19–7 |
| HOU | Q2 1:06 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 19–7 |
| TEN | Q2 0:45 | 4 | 22 | Field goal | 22–7 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 22–7 |
| TEN | Q3 14:08 | 6 | 5 | Field goal | 25–7 |
| HOU | Q3 10:53 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 25–7 |
| TEN | Q3 9:25 | 12 | 73 | Touchdown | 32–7 |
| HOU | Q3 3:01 | 9 | 70 | Touchdown | 32–15 |
| TEN | Q4 13:43 | 4 | 31 | Punt | 32–15 |
| HOU | Q4 12:08 | 8 | 93 | Touchdown | 32–22 |
| TEN | Q4 8:15 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 32–22 |
| TEN | Q4 6:40 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 32–22 |
| HOU | Q4 4:30 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 32–22 |
| TEN | Q4 4:14 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 35–22 |
| HOU | Q4 3:47 | 12 | 75 | Touchdown | 35–29 |
| TEN | Q4 1:37 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 35–29 |
| HOU | Q4 1:32 | 3 | 61 | Touchdown | 35–36 |
| TEN | Q4 0:57 | 5 | 69 | Field goal | 38–36 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 25/42 | 280 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LenDale White | 27 | 104 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Chris Henry | 11 | 57 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Roydell Williams | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sage Rosenfels | 22/35 | 290 | 4 | 3 |
| Matt Schaub | 5/9 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.07
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.25