Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
38
Model margin
+3.5est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play-0.075
- 38.9%Success rate41.4%
- -0.137EPA / dropback-0.065
- -0.112EPA / rush-0.088
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.7%
- -1.62CPOE+0.41
- 33.2%Third-down rate37.1%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate41.2%
- 1.13Points / drive1.32
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 14/21 | 130 | 0 | 1 |
| J.P. Losman | 3/5 | 113 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 21 | 80 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Dwayne Wright | 12 | 25 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Evans | 5 | 1 | 138 | 1 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 13/20 | 106 | 0 | 0 |
| Kellen Clemens | 5/12 | 67 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 16 | 70 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.94
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.50