Closing spread
CHI -6
Total
45.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.065EPA / play-0.128
- 42.9%Success rate38.4%
- -0.034EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.190
- 8.6%Explosive rate6.6%
- +1.53CPOE-3.34
- 32.3%Third-down rate34.3%
- 54.4%Red-zone TD rate49.0%
- 1.58Points / drive1.34
- 3.5%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 24/35 | 268 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 23 | 105 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Calvin Johnson | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 22/40 | 208 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 13 | 50 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 2 | -6 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.56
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.12