2007 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Steve McNair

7·38

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · dessograss · 52°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PIT -9.5

Total

36

Model margin

+4.8est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapSteelers
  • -0.108EPA / play+0.055
  • 40.5%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.090EPA / dropback+0.197
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.100
  • 6.5%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +1.46CPOE+5.79
  • 37.9%Third-down rate47.9%
  • 50.1%Red-zone TD rate63.2%
  • 1.35Points / drive2.10
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–PIT
PITQ1 15:00514Punt0–0
BALQ1 11:4760Turnover0–0
PITQ1 8:50320Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 7:1739Punt0–7
PITQ1 5:2538Punt0–7
PITQ1 3:27515Touchdown0–14
BALQ1 1:41310Turnover0–14
PITQ1 0:19336Touchdown0–21
BALQ2 14:12311Punt0–21
PITQ2 13:133-4Punt0–21
BALQ2 11:1433Punt0–21
PITQ2 8:23650Touchdown0–28
BALQ2 5:40412Turnover0–28
PITQ2 4:00544Touchdown0–35
BALQ2 1:51133Touchdown7–35
PITQ2 1:3338Punt7–35
BALQ2 0:532-9End of half7–35
BALQ3 15:003-2Punt7–35
PITQ3 13:0136Punt7–35
BALQ3 10:46618Punt7–35
PITQ3 8:03652Field goal7–38
BALQ3 4:5436Punt7–38
PITQ3 2:4034Punt7–38
BALQ3 0:353-4Punt7–38
PITQ4 14:443-1Punt7–38
BALQ4 12:4133Punt7–38
PITQ4 11:37614Turnover7–38
BALQ4 7:2532Punt7–38
PITQ4 6:26725Punt7–38
BALQ4 1:48512Punt7–38
PITQ4 0:4500End of half7–38

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair13/226301
Kyle Boller3/92100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee12504.21
Musa Smith11111.00

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger13/1620950
Charlie Batch1/51401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willie Parker23421.80
Najeh Davenport11343.10
Carey Davis3144.70
Charlie Batch200.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

3.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.9%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.24
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.58
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+4.82