Closing spread
PIT -9.5
Total
36
Model margin
+4.8est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.108EPA / play+0.055
- 40.5%Success rate41.8%
- -0.090EPA / dropback+0.197
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.100
- 6.5%Explosive rate9.2%
- +1.46CPOE+5.79
- 37.9%Third-down rate47.9%
- 50.1%Red-zone TD rate63.2%
- 1.35Points / drive2.10
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 13/22 | 63 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Boller | 3/9 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 12 | 50 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Musa Smith | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 13/16 | 209 | 5 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 1/5 | 14 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 23 | 42 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Carey Davis | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
3.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.58
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+4.82