Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
41
Model margin
+0.6est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. OAK are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sage Rosenfels | 11/19 | 181 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 21 | 122 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Ahman Green | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Adimchinobe Echemandu | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jameel Cook | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.6%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.45
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.44
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.58
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.