Closing spread
ATL -3.5
Total
37
Model margin
+2.6est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.254EPA / play-0.148
- 36.7%Success rate37.3%
- -0.277EPA / dropback-0.138
- -0.213EPA / rush-0.167
- 7.2%Explosive rate7.5%
- -5.63CPOE-3.93
- 31.5%Third-down rate36.4%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
- 0.92Points / drive1.07
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. ATL are 8-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 14/25 | 138 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 27 | 100 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Jerious Norwood | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.70
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.63