Closing spread
CAR -3.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play-0.088
- 37.3%Success rate38.9%
- -0.138EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.111
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.7%
- -3.93CPOE-5.47
- 36.4%Third-down rate36.1%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 1.07Points / drive1.27
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–22 since 1999
CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. CAR are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 12:52 | 8 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q1 8:43 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ATL | Q1 6:19 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q1 2:57 | 8 | 63 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| ATL | Q2 13:34 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q2 11:21 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ATL | Q2 9:48 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q2 7:27 | 3 | 21 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ATL | Q2 5:43 | 3 | 14 | Opp touchdown | 7–7 |
| ATL | Q2 4:20 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 7–7 |
| CAR | Q2 2:29 | 7 | 11 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–10 |
| CAR | Q3 13:27 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 7–10 |
| ATL | Q3 11:18 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 7–10 |
| CAR | Q3 8:55 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–10 |
| ATL | Q3 7:41 | 7 | 41 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| CAR | Q3 3:24 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 10–10 |
| ATL | Q3 0:20 | 6 | 38 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| CAR | Q4 11:35 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–10 |
| ATL | Q4 10:04 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 13–10 |
| CAR | Q4 7:49 | 9 | 66 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| ATL | Q4 3:35 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–13 |
| CAR | Q4 2:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–13 |
| ATL | Q4 0:53 | 3 | 40 | Touchdown | 20–13 |
| CAR | Q4 0:20 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 20–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 19/26 | 192 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Redman | 1/1 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 26 | 89 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Joey Harrington | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Artose Pinner | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 13/28 | 153 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 20 | 59 | 3.0 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.04
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.60