Closing spread
CAR -3.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play-0.088
- 37.3%Success rate38.9%
- -0.138EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.111
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.7%
- -3.93CPOE-5.47
- 36.4%Third-down rate36.1%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 1.07Points / drive1.27
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. CAR are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 19/26 | 192 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Redman | 1/1 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 26 | 89 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Joey Harrington | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Artose Pinner | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 13/28 | 153 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 20 | 59 | 3.0 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.04
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.60