Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.024EPA / play-0.108
- 46.0%Success rate40.5%
- +0.100EPA / dropback-0.090
- -0.091EPA / rush-0.133
- 7.9%Explosive rate6.5%
- +5.31CPOE+1.46
- 45.6%Third-down rate37.9%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate50.1%
- 1.86Points / drive1.35
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. BAL are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 23/34 | 271 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 22 | 46 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 17/26 | 128 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Boller | 6/8 | 89 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 17 | 60 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.8%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.74
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.58
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.84