Closing spread
PIT -10
Total
47
Model margin
+2.7est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play+0.055
- 42.4%Success rate41.8%
- +0.032EPA / dropback+0.197
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.100
- 10.4%Explosive rate9.2%
- -2.23CPOE+5.79
- 42.7%Third-down rate47.9%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate63.2%
- 1.84Points / drive2.10
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. PIT are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 16/35 | 123 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 16 | 35 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 23/34 | 278 | 2 | 1 |
| Willie Parker | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 25 | 105 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 5 | 49 | 9.8 | 1 |
| Najeh Davenport | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.72