Closing spread
PIT -10
Total
47
Model margin
+2.7est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play+0.055
- 42.4%Success rate41.8%
- +0.032EPA / dropback+0.197
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.100
- 10.4%Explosive rate9.2%
- -2.23CPOE+5.79
- 42.7%Third-down rate47.9%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate63.2%
- 1.84Points / drive2.10
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 43–14–1 since 1999
Meetings average 39 points. PIT are 30-26-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CLE–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 13:05 | 17 | 76 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| PIT | Q1 4:10 | 6 | 52 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| CLE | Q1 1:29 | 4 | 8 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| PIT | Q2 14:56 | 9 | 54 | Field goal | 14–6 |
| CLE | Q2 9:02 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 14–6 |
| PIT | Q2 6:32 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–6 |
| CLE | Q2 6:23 | 3 | 18 | Touchdown | 21–6 |
| PIT | Q2 5:24 | 14 | 77 | Field goal | 21–9 |
| CLE | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–9 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 21–9 |
| PIT | Q3 13:53 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 21–9 |
| CLE | Q3 12:16 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 21–9 |
| PIT | Q3 10:42 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 21–9 |
| CLE | Q3 8:26 | 1 | 4 | Turnover | 21–9 |
| PIT | Q3 8:18 | 4 | 38 | Touchdown | 21–16 |
| CLE | Q3 6:14 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 21–16 |
| PIT | Q3 4:39 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 21–16 |
| CLE | Q3 1:18 | 6 | 3 | Punt | 21–16 |
| PIT | Q4 14:47 | 7 | 71 | Touchdown | 27–24 |
| CLE | Q4 11:32 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 28–24 |
| PIT | Q4 11:14 | 14 | 78 | Touchdown | 28–31 |
| CLE | Q4 3:13 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 28–31 |
| PIT | Q4 2:42 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 28–31 |
| CLE | Q4 1:04 | 4 | 32 | Missed field goal | 28–31 |
| PIT | Q4 0:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 28–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 16/35 | 123 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 16 | 35 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 23/34 | 278 | 2 | 1 |
| Willie Parker | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 25 | 105 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 5 | 49 | 9.8 | 1 |
| Najeh Davenport | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.72