Closing spread
KC -3
Total
37
Model margin
+1.6est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play-0.132
- 42.8%Success rate37.8%
- +0.071EPA / dropback-0.112
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.167
- 9.4%Explosive rate5.9%
- +1.55CPOE-0.79
- 40.0%Third-down rate34.0%
- 49.6%Red-zone TD rate55.6%
- 1.46Points / drive0.94
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 17/29 | 192 | 1 | 1 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selvin Young | 20 | 109 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Andre Hall | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brodie Croyle | 17/30 | 162 | 0 | 1 |
| Damon Huard | 6/15 | 83 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 20 | 65 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Kolby Smith | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.65