Closing spread
ARI -2
Total
45
Model margin
+5.8est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.065EPA / play-0.037
- 42.9%Success rate42.9%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.116
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.2%
- +1.53CPOE+0.38
- 32.3%Third-down rate36.9%
- 54.4%Red-zone TD rate73.6%
- 1.58Points / drive1.68
- 3.5%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 10–8–1 since 1999
DET have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. ARI are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 32/45 | 294 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aveion Cason | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Jones | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 1 |
| Shaun McDonald | 1 | -15 | -15.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 26/36 | 259 | 3 | 1 |
| Tim Rattay | 1/1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 18 | 60 | 3.3 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.83