Closing spread
ARI -2
Total
45
Model margin
+5.8est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.065EPA / play-0.037
- 42.9%Success rate42.9%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.116
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.2%
- +1.53CPOE+0.38
- 32.3%Third-down rate36.9%
- 54.4%Red-zone TD rate73.6%
- 1.58Points / drive1.68
- 3.5%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 10–9–1 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. ARI are 10-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DET–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 22 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 11:10 | 3 | 25 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 10:29 | 9 | 30 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DET | Q1 5:54 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 5:45 | 6 | 8 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| DET | Q1 2:47 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 7–3 |
| ARI | Q1 0:37 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 7–3 |
| DET | Q2 13:42 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–3 |
| ARI | Q2 12:12 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–3 |
| DET | Q2 10:42 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–3 |
| ARI | Q2 8:18 | 3 | 13 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| DET | Q2 7:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–10 |
| ARI | Q2 5:29 | 15 | 100 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| DET | Q2 0:18 | 1 | 6 | End of half | 7–17 |
| DET | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 51 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| ARI | Q3 9:54 | 5 | 51 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| DET | Q3 7:31 | 7 | 57 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| ARI | Q3 2:52 | 4 | 15 | Turnover | 14–24 |
| DET | Q3 0:11 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 14–24 |
| ARI | Q4 15:00 | 3 | 36 | Touchdown | 14–31 |
| DET | Q4 13:23 | 3 | 10 | Turnover | 14–31 |
| ARI | Q4 12:23 | 2 | 18 | Turnover | 14–31 |
| DET | Q4 10:46 | 6 | 9 | Turnover | 14–31 |
| ARI | Q4 9:00 | 3 | -1 | Turnover | 14–31 |
| DET | Q4 7:06 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 14–31 |
| ARI | Q4 5:01 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–31 |
| DET | Q4 3:17 | 10 | 63 | Touchdown | 21–31 |
| ARI | Q4 1:15 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 32/45 | 294 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aveion Cason | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Jones | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 1 |
| Shaun McDonald | 1 | -15 | -15.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 26/36 | 259 | 3 | 1 |
| Tim Rattay | 1/1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 18 | 60 | 3.3 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.83