Closing spread
IND -3.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 8–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. SD are 8-4-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| IND | Q1 14:47 | 7 | 22 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 11:08 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| IND | Q1 9:40 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 9:28 | 5 | 22 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| IND | Q1 7:14 | 3 | 2 | Opp touchdown | 0–16 |
| IND | Q1 5:55 | 9 | 9 | Turnover | 0–16 |
| LAC | Q1 2:07 | 4 | 13 | Turnover | 0–16 |
| IND | Q1 0:02 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 0–16 |
| LAC | Q2 14:18 | 12 | 46 | Touchdown | 0–23 |
| IND | Q2 8:47 | 13 | 62 | Touchdown | 7–23 |
| LAC | Q2 2:42 | 4 | 28 | Punt | 7–23 |
| IND | Q2 1:30 | 6 | 62 | Missed field goal | 7–23 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 40 | Turnover | 7–23 |
| LAC | Q3 10:52 | 9 | 32 | Punt | 7–23 |
| IND | Q3 5:09 | 12 | 90 | Touchdown | 15–23 |
| LAC | Q4 14:53 | 3 | -8 | Opp touchdown | 21–23 |
| LAC | Q4 14:28 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 21–23 |
| IND | Q4 12:11 | 11 | 57 | Punt | 21–23 |
| LAC | Q4 7:21 | 3 | 19 | Turnover | 21–23 |
| IND | Q4 5:50 | 8 | 30 | Missed field goal | 21–23 |
| LAC | Q4 1:31 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 21–23 |
| IND | Q4 0:22 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 21–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 34/56 | 328 | 2 | 6 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 22 | 56 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Kenton Keith | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.4%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.14
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.