Closing spread
TEN -4.5
Total
36
Model margin
+1.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.108EPA / play-0.066
- 44.1%Success rate42.4%
- +0.191EPA / dropback-0.003
- +0.015EPA / rush-0.139
- 10.4%Explosive rate7.0%
- +2.15CPOE+1.31
- 47.2%Third-down rate41.4%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate48.8%
- 2.25Points / drive1.43
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 35 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 9:31 | 13 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| TEN | Q1 2:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 0:19 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–0 |
| TEN | Q2 13:42 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q2 12:13 | 13 | 44 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| TEN | Q2 5:07 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–0 |
| JAX | Q2 3:37 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–0 |
| TEN | Q2 1:51 | 9 | 57 | Field goal | 14–3 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–3 |
| TEN | Q3 13:29 | 4 | 9 | Turnover | 14–3 |
| JAX | Q3 11:49 | 5 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 14–3 |
| TEN | Q3 9:48 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 14–3 |
| JAX | Q3 8:23 | 3 | 13 | Touchdown | 21–3 |
| TEN | Q3 7:49 | 6 | 55 | Field goal | 21–6 |
| JAX | Q3 4:44 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 21–6 |
| TEN | Q3 3:00 | 10 | 67 | Touchdown | 21–13 |
| JAX | Q4 14:54 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 21–13 |
| TEN | Q4 11:46 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 21–13 |
| JAX | Q4 10:33 | 11 | 44 | Touchdown | 28–13 |
| TEN | Q4 4:47 | 7 | 27 | Turnover on downs | 28–13 |
| JAX | Q4 2:38 | 4 | 9 | Turnover | 28–13 |
| TEN | Q4 2:13 | 4 | 28 | Turnover | 28–13 |
| JAX | Q4 1:14 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 28–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Gray | 13/23 | 101 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 19 | 101 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Fred Taylor | 16 | 45 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Quinn Gray | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 24/41 | 257 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 8 | 52 | 6.5 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 8 | 12 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Chris Henry | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.79
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.56