Closing spread
TEN -4.5
Total
36
Model margin
+1.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.108EPA / play-0.066
- 44.1%Success rate42.4%
- +0.191EPA / dropback-0.003
- +0.015EPA / rush-0.139
- 10.4%Explosive rate7.0%
- +2.15CPOE+1.31
- 47.2%Third-down rate41.4%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate48.8%
- 2.25Points / drive1.43
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Gray | 13/23 | 101 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 19 | 101 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Fred Taylor | 16 | 45 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Quinn Gray | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 24/41 | 257 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 8 | 52 | 6.5 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 8 | 12 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Chris Henry | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.79
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.56