Closing spread
IND -14.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+6.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.132EPA / play+0.139
- 37.8%Success rate48.8%
- -0.112EPA / dropback+0.222
- -0.167EPA / rush+0.025
- 5.9%Explosive rate9.7%
- -0.79CPOE+1.87
- 34.0%Third-down rate49.3%
- 55.6%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 0.94Points / drive2.49
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.9 points. IND are 12-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brodie Croyle | 19/27 | 169 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 19 | 55 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Kolby Smith | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 16/32 | 163 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 21 | 72 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
| Kenton Keith | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.8%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.63
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.57
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.76