Closing spread
IND -14.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+6.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.132EPA / play+0.139
- 37.8%Success rate48.8%
- -0.112EPA / dropback+0.222
- -0.167EPA / rush+0.025
- 5.9%Explosive rate9.7%
- -0.79CPOE+1.87
- 34.0%Third-down rate49.3%
- 55.6%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 0.94Points / drive2.49
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 12–6 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. IND are 13-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 10:38 | 6 | 40 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 7:59 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 6:16 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 4:19 | 6 | 7 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 1:34 | 10 | 52 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| IND | Q2 11:02 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| KC | Q2 10:57 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| IND | Q2 8:55 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 3–0 |
| KC | Q2 7:26 | 5 | 21 | Missed field goal | 3–0 |
| IND | Q2 4:56 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–0 |
| KC | Q2 4:04 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| IND | Q2 2:40 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| KC | Q2 1:18 | 2 | 9 | End of half | 3–3 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–3 |
| KC | Q3 14:09 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 3–3 |
| IND | Q3 12:10 | 9 | 61 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| KC | Q3 7:17 | 12 | 72 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| IND | Q3 1:22 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 10–10 |
| KC | Q4 14:53 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–10 |
| IND | Q4 13:18 | 7 | 13 | Punt | 10–10 |
| KC | Q4 10:59 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 10–10 |
| IND | Q4 6:59 | 10 | 65 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| KC | Q4 0:03 | 1 | 21 | End of half | 10–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brodie Croyle | 19/27 | 169 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 19 | 55 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Kolby Smith | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 16/32 | 163 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 21 | 72 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
| Kenton Keith | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.8%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.63
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.57
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.76