Closing spread
JAX -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+5.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 9–6 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. JAX are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 15/24 | 189 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 20 | 85 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.7%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.13
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.