Closing spread
JAX -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+5.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 9–6 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. JAX are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 46 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 9:12 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 0–3 |
| JAX | Q1 5:59 | 11 | 48 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q1 0:40 | 11 | 80 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| JAX | Q2 9:58 | 9 | 68 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| LAC | Q2 5:25 | 8 | 40 | Punt | 3–17 |
| JAX | Q2 1:46 | 6 | 25 | End of half | 3–17 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 60 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| JAX | Q3 13:19 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 10–17 |
| LAC | Q3 11:12 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 10–17 |
| JAX | Q3 8:01 | 5 | 87 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| LAC | Q3 5:02 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–24 |
| JAX | Q3 2:47 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–24 |
| LAC | Q3 1:07 | 6 | 23 | Turnover on downs | 10–24 |
| JAX | Q4 14:14 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 10–24 |
| LAC | Q4 12:13 | 7 | 35 | Turnover | 10–24 |
| JAX | Q4 9:28 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–24 |
| LAC | Q4 7:03 | 7 | 75 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| JAX | Q4 5:06 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 17–24 |
| LAC | Q4 2:13 | 4 | 16 | Turnover | 17–24 |
| JAX | Q4 1:26 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 15/24 | 189 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 20 | 85 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.7%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.13
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.