Closing spread
SD -9
Total
38.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
SD perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 10–4 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. SD are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 13:27 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 11:31 | 10 | 24 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 7:22 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 5:08 | 5 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 2:42 | 9 | 42 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| BAL | Q2 13:11 | 6 | 37 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q2 9:59 | 7 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–9 |
| BAL | Q2 7:16 | 3 | -1 | Turnover | 7–9 |
| LAC | Q2 5:52 | 3 | 2 | Field goal | 7–12 |
| BAL | Q2 5:09 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 7–12 |
| LAC | Q2 3:47 | 9 | 49 | Touchdown | 7–19 |
| BAL | Q2 0:25 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 7–19 |
| LAC | Q2 0:22 | 2 | 11 | Field goal | 7–22 |
| BAL | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–22 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–29 |
| BAL | Q3 11:30 | 11 | 69 | Touchdown | 14–29 |
| LAC | Q3 5:39 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–29 |
| BAL | Q3 4:07 | 8 | 23 | Punt | 14–29 |
| LAC | Q4 14:52 | 10 | 50 | Field goal | 14–32 |
| BAL | Q4 8:41 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 14–32 |
| LAC | Q4 7:07 | 9 | 11 | Punt | 14–32 |
| BAL | Q4 2:16 | 8 | 63 | Turnover on downs | 14–32 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 21/33 | 191 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 17 | 59 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Musa Smith | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.65
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.21
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.