Closing spread
GB -3.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-1.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.075EPA / play-0.065
- 43.6%Success rate42.9%
- +0.184EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.109EPA / rush-0.134
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.6%
- +4.25CPOE+1.53
- 42.9%Third-down rate32.3%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate54.4%
- 2.16Points / drive1.58
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. DET are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 62 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| GB | Q1 7:11 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| DET | Q1 6:53 | 3 | 2 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| GB | Q1 6:04 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–6 |
| DET | Q1 4:19 | 7 | 36 | Punt | 0–6 |
| GB | Q1 0:57 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–6 |
| DET | Q1 0:04 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 6–6 |
| GB | Q2 14:47 | 1 | 11 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| DET | Q2 14:43 | 8 | 38 | Punt | 7–6 |
| GB | Q2 10:32 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–6 |
| DET | Q2 7:41 | 3 | -3 | Field goal | 14–9 |
| GB | Q2 6:15 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–9 |
| DET | Q2 5:04 | 7 | 36 | Punt | 14–9 |
| GB | Q2 2:12 | 8 | 78 | Field goal | 17–9 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 24–9 |
| DET | Q3 11:13 | 11 | 52 | Field goal | 24–12 |
| GB | Q3 5:15 | 7 | 67 | Touchdown | 31–12 |
| DET | Q3 1:48 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 31–12 |
| GB | Q3 0:39 | 7 | 49 | Field goal | 34–12 |
| DET | Q4 13:08 | 10 | 58 | Touchdown | 34–19 |
| GB | Q4 9:58 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 34–19 |
| DET | Q4 8:11 | 6 | 38 | Touchdown | 34–26 |
| GB | Q4 6:34 | 10 | 87 | Field goal | 37–26 |
| DET | Q4 1:44 | 7 | 3 | Turnover on downs | 37–26 |
| GB | Q4 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 37–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 31/41 | 381 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 15 | 101 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 19/40 | 224 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 20 | 93 | 4.7 | 1 |
| T.J. Duckett | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.0%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.46
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.90