Closing spread
GB -3.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-1.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.075EPA / play-0.065
- 43.6%Success rate42.9%
- +0.184EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.109EPA / rush-0.134
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.6%
- +4.25CPOE+1.53
- 42.9%Third-down rate32.3%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate54.4%
- 2.16Points / drive1.58
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. DET are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 31/41 | 381 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 15 | 101 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 19/40 | 224 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 20 | 93 | 4.7 | 1 |
| T.J. Duckett | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.0%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.46
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.90