2007 · Week 12
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
TB -3.5
Total
38
Model margin
+4.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play-0.004
- 41.8%Success rate41.9%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.199EPA / rush-0.100
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.8%
- +2.48CPOE+2.62
- 41.1%Third-down rate39.3%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 1.59Points / drive1.64
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.5 points. TB are 7-9-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 11:35 | 1 | 7 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 11:23 | 3 | 19 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| WAS | Q1 10:00 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 9:34 | 5 | 7 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| WAS | Q1 6:27 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 0–10 |
| TB | Q1 3:19 | 6 | 49 | Punt | 0–10 |
| WAS | Q2 15:00 | 3 | -2 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| TB | Q2 14:40 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| WAS | Q2 12:28 | 4 | 10 | Turnover | 0–13 |
| TB | Q2 11:11 | 3 | 2 | Field goal | 0–16 |
| WAS | Q2 10:13 | 10 | 45 | Field goal | 3–16 |
| TB | Q2 6:11 | 8 | 37 | Punt | 3–16 |
| WAS | Q2 2:15 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–16 |
| TB | Q2 1:33 | 4 | 29 | Field goal | 3–19 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 73 | Touchdown | 10–19 |
| TB | Q3 10:38 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–19 |
| WAS | Q3 9:05 | 14 | 71 | Turnover on downs | 10–19 |
| TB | Q3 2:05 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 10–19 |
| WAS | Q3 1:04 | 11 | 36 | Field goal | 13–19 |
| TB | Q4 11:19 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 13–19 |
| WAS | Q4 9:31 | 10 | 59 | Turnover | 13–19 |
| TB | Q4 3:40 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–19 |
| WAS | Q4 3:05 | 11 | 77 | Turnover | 13–19 |
| TB | Q4 0:17 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 30/49 | 301 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 20 | 68 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruce Gradkowski | 9/19 | 106 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 2/4 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnest Graham | 21 | 75 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Bruce Gradkowski | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.74
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.31