2007 · Week 12

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Jason Campbell

13·19

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jeff Garcia

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

TB -3.5

Total

38

Model margin

+4.3est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.040EPA / play-0.004
  • 41.8%Success rate41.9%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.063
  • -0.199EPA / rush-0.100
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +2.48CPOE+2.62
  • 41.1%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 54.1%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.64
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 9–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.5 points. TB are 7-9-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · playoffsWAS @ TB23–20WAS
2024 · W1WAS @ TB20–37TB
2021 · W10TB @ WAS19–29WAS
2020 · playoffsTB @ WAS31–23TB
2018 · W10WAS @ TB16–3WAS
2015 · W7TB @ WAS30–31WAS
2014 · W11TB @ WAS27–7TB
2012 · W4WAS @ TB24–22WAS

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jason Campbell30/4930112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis20683.40
Ladell Betts8475.90
Jason Campbell242.00
Antwaan Randle El111.00

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bruce Gradkowski9/1910600
Jeff Garcia2/4900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Earnest Graham21753.61
Bruce Gradkowski22412.00
Jeff Garcia200.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.6%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.74
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.31