Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+2.9est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. OAK are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 75 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 8:07 | 13 | 83 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 0:46 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–7 |
| DEN | Q2 14:43 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 13:48 | 8 | 50 | Missed field goal | 7–7 |
| DEN | Q2 9:53 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 8:12 | 8 | 48 | Turnover on downs | 7–7 |
| DEN | Q2 3:52 | 2 | 10 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 3:05 | 5 | 35 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| DEN | Q2 0:50 | 5 | 19 | End of half | 7–14 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| LV | Q3 14:04 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 7–17 |
| DEN | Q3 12:40 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| LV | Q3 11:38 | 2 | 12 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| DEN | Q3 10:55 | 5 | 67 | Field goal | 10–24 |
| LV | Q3 7:25 | 5 | 41 | Missed field goal | 10–24 |
| DEN | Q3 4:40 | 5 | 49 | Field goal | 13–24 |
| LV | Q3 1:37 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 13–24 |
| DEN | Q3 0:02 | 9 | 30 | Touchdown | 20–24 |
| LV | Q4 11:21 | 5 | 45 | Field goal | 20–27 |
| DEN | Q4 8:56 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 20–27 |
| LV | Q4 8:48 | 12 | 48 | Touchdown | 20–34 |
| DEN | Q4 3:04 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 20–34 |
| LV | Q4 2:20 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 20–34 |
| DEN | Q4 1:02 | 4 | 16 | End of half | 20–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 16/32 | 214 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 15 | 49 | 3.3 | 2 |
| Selvin Young | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Cecil Sapp | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
6.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.85
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.