Closing spread
MIN -5.5
Total
44
Model margin
+5.7est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.065EPA / play-0.033
- 42.9%Success rate43.2%
- -0.034EPA / dropback-0.029
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.037
- 8.6%Explosive rate10.4%
- +1.53CPOE-0.23
- 32.3%Third-down rate35.8%
- 54.4%Red-zone TD rate68.8%
- 1.58Points / drive1.51
- 3.5%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. MIN are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 27/36 | 260 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Duckett | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Kevin Jones | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 18/24 | 204 | 2 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 15 | 116 | 7.7 | 2 |
| Chester Taylor | 14 | 70 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Jeff Dugan | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.2%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+5.71