Closing spread
MIA -1
Total
37
Model margin
+1.0est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play-0.078
- 41.4%Success rate40.4%
- -0.065EPA / dropback-0.084
- -0.088EPA / rush-0.069
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.3%
- +0.41CPOE-3.12
- 37.1%Third-down rate37.0%
- 41.2%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.32Points / drive1.36
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 29–26 since 1999
MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. MIA are 24-28-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 84 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 8:58 | 9 | 28 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| NYJ | Q1 3:15 | 6 | 5 | Punt | 7–3 |
| MIA | Q1 0:57 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–3 |
| NYJ | Q2 14:47 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| MIA | Q2 13:55 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| NYJ | Q2 11:56 | 4 | 57 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| MIA | Q2 10:07 | 6 | 33 | Turnover | 10–6 |
| NYJ | Q2 8:12 | 3 | -6 | Opp touchdown | 10–13 |
| NYJ | Q2 6:41 | 7 | 56 | Touchdown | 17–13 |
| MIA | Q2 2:39 | 10 | 48 | Turnover | 17–13 |
| NYJ | Q2 1:11 | 7 | 33 | Field goal | 20–13 |
| MIA | Q2 0:10 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–13 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 17 | Punt | 20–13 |
| NYJ | Q3 9:14 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 20–13 |
| MIA | Q3 7:39 | 1 | -5 | Turnover | 20–13 |
| NYJ | Q3 7:27 | 4 | 22 | Field goal | 23–13 |
| MIA | Q3 5:54 | 3 | -7 | Turnover | 23–13 |
| NYJ | Q3 4:13 | 8 | 29 | Touchdown | 30–13 |
| MIA | Q4 14:21 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 30–13 |
| NYJ | Q4 13:39 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 33–13 |
| MIA | Q4 11:48 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 33–13 |
| NYJ | Q4 9:26 | 11 | 76 | Touchdown | 40–13 |
| MIA | Q4 1:52 | 7 | 44 | End of half | 40–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Clemens | 15/24 | 236 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 24 | 75 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Leon Washington | 10 | 68 | 6.8 | 2 |
| Kellen Clemens | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Beck | 23/39 | 177 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Chatman | 11 | 26 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Booker | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| John Beck | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Samkon Gado | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.8%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.33
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+1.03