Closing spread
MIA -1
Total
37
Model margin
+1.0est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play-0.078
- 41.4%Success rate40.4%
- -0.065EPA / dropback-0.084
- -0.088EPA / rush-0.069
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.3%
- +0.41CPOE-3.12
- 37.1%Third-down rate37.0%
- 41.2%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.32Points / drive1.36
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. MIA are 23-28-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Clemens | 15/24 | 236 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 24 | 75 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Leon Washington | 10 | 68 | 6.8 | 2 |
| Kellen Clemens | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Beck | 23/39 | 177 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Chatman | 11 | 26 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Booker | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| John Beck | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Samkon Gado | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.8%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.33
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+1.03