2007 · Week 13 · Division
Final
Louisiana Superdome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
NO -5.5
Total
41
Model margin
+3.7est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play+0.011
- 41.9%Success rate47.6%
- +0.063EPA / dropback+0.072
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.101
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.6%
- +2.62CPOE+4.63
- 39.3%Third-down rate46.0%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate69.1%
- 1.64Points / drive1.69
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 65 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NO | Q1 9:54 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TB | Q1 8:45 | 5 | 54 | Missed field goal | 3–0 |
| NO | Q1 5:11 | 5 | 57 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| TB | Q1 2:05 | 6 | 75 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| NO | Q2 14:20 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 10–7 |
| TB | Q2 11:13 | 5 | 57 | Field goal | 13–7 |
| NO | Q2 7:52 | 8 | 77 | Touchdown | 13–14 |
| TB | Q2 3:21 | 11 | 34 | End of half | 13–14 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 13–14 |
| TB | Q3 13:03 | 6 | 55 | Touchdown | 20–14 |
| NO | Q3 9:36 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 20–14 |
| TB | Q3 6:34 | 8 | 25 | Opp touchdown | 20–21 |
| TB | Q3 3:05 | 7 | 47 | Punt | 20–21 |
| NO | Q4 14:07 | 7 | 23 | Punt | 20–21 |
| TB | Q4 10:19 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 20–21 |
| NO | Q4 8:02 | 8 | 37 | Punt | 20–21 |
| TB | Q4 3:56 | 2 | -2 | Safety | 20–23 |
| NO | Q4 3:44 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 20–23 |
| TB | Q4 3:30 | 8 | 37 | Touchdown | 27–23 |
| NO | Q4 0:14 | 2 | 9 | End of half | 27–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke McCown | 29/37 | 313 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnest Graham | 22 | 106 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Luke McCown | 2 | 34 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 17/23 | 179 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 13 | 64 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.03
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.66