2007 · Week 14

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Derek Anderson

24·18

Jets

New York

QB Kellen Clemens

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 38°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

CLE -3

Total

47

Model margin

-1.7est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapJets
  • -0.013EPA / play-0.075
  • 42.4%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.032EPA / dropback-0.065
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.088
  • 10.4%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -2.23CPOE+0.41
  • 42.7%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate41.2%
  • 1.84Points / drive1.32
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. NYJ are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10CLE @ NYJ20–27NYJ
2023 · W17NYJ @ CLE20–37CLE
2022 · W2NYJ @ CLE31–30NYJ
2020 · W16CLE @ NYJ16–23NYJ
2019 · W2CLE @ NYJ23–3CLE
2018 · W3NYJ @ CLE17–21CLE
2017 · W5NYJ @ CLE17–14NYJ
2016 · W8NYJ @ CLE31–28NYJ

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Anderson16/2918521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis211185.61
Jerome Harrison22110.50
Josh Cribbs144.00
Derek Anderson331.00

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kellen Clemens24/4128602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones241064.40
Kellen Clemens382.71
Leon Washington351.70

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.6%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.24
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.98
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.66