Closing spread
CLE -3
Total
47
Model margin
-1.7est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play-0.075
- 42.4%Success rate41.4%
- +0.032EPA / dropback-0.065
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.088
- 10.4%Explosive rate7.7%
- -2.23CPOE+0.41
- 42.7%Third-down rate37.1%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate41.2%
- 1.84Points / drive1.32
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 10–6 since 1999
NYJ have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.5 points. NYJ are 10-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CLE–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 49 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 8:57 | 10 | 49 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 3:06 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 0:03 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 15:00 | 7 | 10 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q2 11:10 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 9:09 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q2 6:09 | 10 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 1:15 | 6 | 58 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 61 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| NYJ | Q3 12:32 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 14–3 |
| CLE | Q3 10:55 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 14–3 |
| NYJ | Q3 7:20 | 10 | 43 | Field goal | 14–6 |
| CLE | Q3 2:50 | 10 | 46 | Field goal | 17–6 |
| NYJ | Q4 12:59 | 7 | 28 | Turnover | 17–6 |
| CLE | Q4 10:07 | 5 | 29 | Punt | 17–6 |
| NYJ | Q4 7:47 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–6 |
| CLE | Q4 6:30 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 17–6 |
| NYJ | Q4 5:27 | 10 | 60 | Touchdown | 17–12 |
| CLE | Q4 2:59 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 17–12 |
| NYJ | Q4 2:58 | 6 | 37 | Field goal | 17–15 |
| CLE | Q4 1:43 | 3 | 37 | Touchdown | 24–15 |
| NYJ | Q4 1:22 | 3 | 43 | Field goal | 24–18 |
| CLE | Q4 0:32 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–18 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 16/29 | 185 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 21 | 118 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Jerome Harrison | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Clemens | 24/41 | 286 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 24 | 106 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Kellen Clemens | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Leon Washington | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.6%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.98
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.66