Closing spread
DAL -10
Total
50
Model margin
-1.1est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play-0.065
- 45.8%Success rate42.9%
- +0.230EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.134
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.6%
- +4.58CPOE+1.53
- 43.2%Third-down rate32.3%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate54.4%
- 2.23Points / drive1.58
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–7 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. DET are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 38 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 10:06 | 5 | 65 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 7:35 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DET | Q1 5:58 | 12 | 48 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| DAL | Q1 0:08 | 5 | 39 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| DET | Q2 12:13 | 6 | 60 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| DAL | Q2 8:22 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–13 |
| DET | Q2 6:45 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–20 |
| DAL | Q2 1:41 | 7 | 65 | Touchdown | 14–20 |
| DET | Q2 0:29 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 14–20 |
| DET | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–20 |
| DAL | Q3 13:26 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 14–20 |
| DET | Q3 10:08 | 10 | 41 | Touchdown | 14–27 |
| DAL | Q3 4:19 | 10 | 56 | Touchdown | 21–27 |
| DET | Q4 14:12 | 7 | 52 | Missed field goal | 21–27 |
| DAL | Q4 10:45 | 9 | 79 | Turnover | 21–27 |
| DET | Q4 5:47 | 10 | 41 | Punt | 21–27 |
| DAL | Q4 2:15 | 11 | 78 | Touchdown | 28–27 |
| DET | Q4 0:18 | 3 | -10 | End of half | 28–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 35/44 | 302 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 2 |
| Julius Jones | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 22/36 | 248 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 23 | 92 | 4.0 | 2 |
| T.J. Duckett | 9 | 60 | 6.7 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.2%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.41
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-1.08